Welcome to the twelfth edition of The Stash List for pitchers!
Ground Rules
- The Stash List is for your redraft leagues and does not consider impact beyond 2023
- Only current minor league players who are expected to make an impact this season are included
- Players who have already made their MLB debuts can not have thrown more than 50 IP in MLB
- Upside, proximity, health, and opportunity are all weighed for each player
- The focus is on 12-team leagues with standard categories
- Rankings and ownership percentages will be updated weekly
Graduates
This section of the column highlights the pitchers that were on the previous week’s list but have since made their MLB debuts and are no longer considered stashes because they’re still on their team’s active roster.
Emmet Sheehan, LAD (Prev. 5)
Emmet Sheehan made his Major League debut last night against the Giants to cap off what I’m sure must have been a whirlwind week for him. He last pitched in AA, then was promoted to AAA early in the week, and then before he could even throw a pitch in the PCL he was promoted again to the Majors.
His results were obviously eye-popping as he threw 6 no-hit innings. He generated a lot of soft contact, but other than that it’s difficult to justify the extreme success he had with the skills he showed. The first thing I noticed in watching the game was that the Dodgers defense was incredible behind him.
He also didn’t miss very many bats and didn’t get many chases or called strikes. I think the arsenal was also a bit different than expected. His fastball averaged 95.6 mph, but it turned out to move like a sinker instead of a 4-seamer. We didn’t have batted ball data in AA where he pitched last, and everyone that I saw (including myself) pegged him to feature a 4-seamer that had good carry.
In reality, the ball sunk much more than expected but maintained the arm side action that we saw. He also threw it 70% of the time, which would be the highest mark in the Majors among qualified starters. If you’re going to throw it that often, it needs to be elite. And I’m not sure if I’m as confident in that now as I was before the debut.
He didn’t feature his two secondary pitches very often, which was likely because he was having issues commanding them and they weren’t getting chases. Again, this is a bit of a deviation from his Minor League stats, but he was facing an extremely different talent base in AA.
His lack of strikeouts and whiffs is definitely surprising after he led all of Minor League Baseball for most of the season in strikeout rate. I don’t mean to suggest he could be a bust (I still love him in dynasty leagues), but I think we need to pay attention to how his stuff plays going forward. The box score may be creating a mirage, and his rotation spot is far from cemented.
Top 10 Pitcher Prospects to Stash
1. Gavin Williams, CLE – ETA June (1)
Gavin Williams is fully blocked at the moment now that the Guardians’ MLB rotation is almost fully healthy. I believe that he’s their SP6 as it stands and that he would be the guy who gets the opportunity if someone were to get injured. Shane Bieber has also been floated as a big trade chip for the Guardians this season, so he could fill the rotation out if that deal is made in July as well.
Williams’ bread-and-butter pitch is his fastball which averages between 96 and 97 mph and can touch 100 mph at times. It gets a ton of swings and misses and he often throws it upwards of 70% of the time in starts. He also features a solid slider as his best secondary pitch and he can also work in a curveball and changeup at times, but much less often.
2. Will Warren, NYY – ETA July (2)
Will Warren mixed up his pitches a bit more than usual in his most recent start by bumping up the usage on both his changeup and 4-seamer. He was having issues with finding the zone on all of his pitches except for the changeup, and it’s because of his nasty stuff and high chase rate that he didn’t allow many more walks. Even without premium velocity, Warren has a good number of ways to get batters out and seems to be able to make adjustments start-by-start. He still feels a bit unpolished, but he could turn a corner quick and earn a promotion in the first half.
Warren features a 5-pitch mix. His 4-seam fastball is his primary offering and it averages 94 mph. It’s the pitch he’s able to throw in the zone with the most consistency and it generates a fair amount of whiffs and chases, but nothing too crazy. It’s a good table setter.
He has two different sliders- a sweeper in the low 80s that’s his best whiff pitch (but it can have trouble staying in or near the zone), and a mid-to-high 80s power slider that he can throw for strikes much more often. He also has a sinker and changeup but throws them 10% less each and there isn’t a ton of data on them yet. It’s a very interesting profile that’s much more promising than the AAA results currently show.
3. Ben Brown, CHC – ETA July (7)
Ben Brown makes the biggest jump of anyone on this week’s list after he threw one of the best starts I’ve seen from a Minor Leaguer this season. Just when I started flying the red flag about Brown’s skyrocketing walk rate, he flipped a switch and walked zero batters in his 6-inning start on Wednesday. The lack of walks was also backed up by a stellar 52% zone rate on the day.
Beyond the newfound command, Brown also missed an impressive amount of bats. He generated 17 whiffs on 86 pitches, which is good for a 19.8% SwStr%. His fastball command was locked in and that seemed to make a huge difference for him.
Brown’s primary offering is that 4-seam fastball that averages a touch below 96 mph. He’s lived and died by it in his starts this season. In Brown’s three starts where he’s had at least 10 strikeouts in AAA, his fastball has had a Zone% of at least 55% while staying out of the very center of the zone. In other starts where he held a high zone rate but poor whiff rate on the fastball, he threw way too many in the heart of the zone. And that’s where a lot of the damage has come.
He also features a power slider, and that pitch combined with the fastball usually accounts for between 85 and 95 percent of the pitches he throws in a game. He’s essentially a two-pitch pitcher, but he also possesses a sweeper and changeup that he can lightly mix in as needed. The lack of depth in his arsenal really emphasizes the do-or-die nature of his fastball that I mentioned earlier. For that reason, there’s a good amount of relief risk long-term. And his high walk rate doesn’t bode well for his career as a starter either. However, he will definitely get a chance to earn a role as a starter as that’s how the Cubs have been developing him.
4. Mike Vasil, NYM – ETA July (6)
Mike Vasil has been promoted to the AAA Syracuse Mets, but he has yet to make his debut at the level. The jump points to the team’s confidence in him, and he should find himself as a MLB depth option by the time the All-Star Break rolls around. The MLB rotation has had its struggles with health and consistency, so it’s easy to see where Vasil could get some stretches of opportunity later this summer.
Vasil has consistently had one of the best walk rates in the Minor Leagues for most of the season. He doesn’t have huge upside because his stuff doesn’t jump off the page in movement or velocity, but he has exceptional command of multiple pitches and has racked up strikeouts regardless.
5. Keaton Winn, SFG – ETA July (4)
Keaton Winn was indeed called up last weekend like I thought he would be, but he ended up appearing in a long relief role instead of a starting one. And then he was promptly demoted. The appearance was solid, as he allowed one run in four innings to close the game in a blowout victory. However, he walked 3 batters and only struck out 2.
His whiff rate was a little higher than average, but his CSW% and chase rate were both very poor. The interesting part was that the changeup he leaned on in AAA actually turned out to be a splitter and he threw it a whopping 56% of the time. He was able to throw it for strikes, but it didn’t get nearly as many chases or whiffs as the typical splitter.
He’s likely still the next man up for the Giants, so he could be a decent streaming option for deeper leagues down the road.
6. Robert Gasser, MLW – ETA July (3)
Robert Gasser hasn’t gotten a call up this week like I thought he might, and now his odds of getting a shot soon seem to be diminishing as Wade Miley returns to the rotation this weekend and Eric Lauer is in the middle of a Minor League rehab assignment. Even with a healthy rotation, Gasser is probably the 7th option for the club and is closer to a debut than many prospects on this list.
Gasser doesn’t have great velocity on any of his pitches, but he’s always carried good strikeout rates in the Minors because he has a deep arsenal and varies his pitches well. The biggest issue for him has been his struggle with command. After being promoted to AAA last season, his walk rates jumped to about 13% after being below 10% for his Minor League career. And through his first 9 appearances this season, Gasser posted a 26% strikeout rate and a 13.3% walk rate in 42 innings pitched. But in his last 3 starts, he’s posted a 26.3% strikeout rate and a 3.8% walk rate in 20 innings pitched.
7. Connor Phillips, CIN – ETA August (8)
Connor Phillips was dominant again this week in AA, and at this point I’m chomping at the bit to get a look at his arsenal in AAA without the tacky ball and with Statcast readings. He’s carried a 45.8% strikeout rate and a 2.1% walk rate in his last two starts across 13 innings. Especially after how the team handled Abbott’s promotions, you have to think the 22-year old will get a shot at AAA some time before the All-Star Break.
Phillips has a really good fastball and curveball and a developing slider and changeup. According to MLB Pipeline, Phillips’ fastball sits between 96 and 97 mph and touches 99. His walk rates have always been above 10%, but he’s improved on them recently.
8. Clayton Beeter, NYY – ETA August (NR)
Clayton Beeter is in line to start today in AA, where he’ll be attempting to continue his insane scoreless streak of 23.1 innings across his previous 5 starts. In that time, he’s carried a 29% strikeout rate and a 14% strikeout rate. So there hasn’t exactly been a huge skills change and he’s probably been quite lucky, but it’s hard to ignore a streak like this. Especially since the Yankees’ organization have seemingly taken some big steps forward in pitching development recently.
Beeter is graded by Fangraphs to have a 60-grade fastball, slider, and curveball, which is extremely uncommon. The command isn’t yet dependable, but he has the raw stuff to shoot up prospect lists and potentially see some MLB action in the dog days of summer.
9. Kyle Harrison, SFG – ETA August (NR)
Kyle Harrison has made a return to this list after walking less than 3 batters in consecutive starts for the first time all season. Furthermore, he threw 5 full innings for the first time all year on Thursday. The strikeout numbers haven’t faltered one bit in this brief stretch, so it may be a sign of a good things to come. I’m not fully buying back in yet for 2023, but I’m a lot more interested than I was a week ago.
It’s worth mentioning that Harrison doesn’t achieve his high strikeout totals with high velocity. He’s not the stereotypical flame thrower who can’t find the zone. His left-handed delivery is deceptive and his pitches have a ton of movement. The fastball has recently been averaging between 93 and 94 mph, but it’s also been consistently his best whiff pitch because he elevates it effectively.
10. Cade Povich, BAL – ETA August (NR)
Cade Povich joins Ben Brown as a guy who had me starting to lose faith only to turn it around on a dime and throw a gem this week. He allowed 1 hit, zero walks, and recorded 13 strikeouts in 7 innings pitched on Thursday. It was a breath of fresh air after 3 straight starts with an ERA of at least 9.00. It also doesn’t necessarily mean that all of his command issues are fixed. He’ll have to continue to build off of this to earn a promotion any time soon. But it’s encouraging to see that he’s getting comfortable with making adjustments.
His fastball sits in the mid-90s from the left side and he also features a cutter, slider, curveball, and changeup. His delivery is a bit deceptive as he hides the ball well, and his arm slot is maybe a bit higher than the 3/4 range. This allows him to drop the hammer with a huge curveball, but likely limits the sweep on his slider. He’s confident with both breaking pitches and can fill up the zone with them if he needs to.
The Watchlist
This section of The Stash List is aimed towards those of you who play in deep leagues (15+ teams or 375+ players rostered) where some of the guys on the list above might already be taken because of their higher pedigree. These players’ debuts will likely be a bit further out than the players listed above, but the purpose is to be ready to pounce on them as soon as it becomes clear that an opportunity might open up.
The players are listed in alphabetical order, and I don’t have the time to do write-ups for these guys, so I’d highly suggest checking out their Fangraphs pages and/or watching one of their starts. Also, shout out to @SpokaneWaUpdate on Twitter for inspiring this section of the article!
Quinn Priester was recently passed up for a promotion in favor of Osvaldo Bido, so it looks like the team believes he still needs more time to develop in the Minors before he fills in for the Pirates. Bido is about 5 years older and has pitched in AAA since 2021, so there’s definitely some seniority in play as well. Regardless, he’s one to continue monitoring but the timeline needs to be stretched a bit.
Wilmer Flores makes his first appearance on this watchlist after a stellar start on Friday night. His ratios are inflated because of 2 horrible starts in early April. But since his start on April 23rd, he’s carrying a 3.44 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 47.1 IP, along with a 23.4 K% and 8.5 BB%.
Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)