2024 WM Phoenix Open Odds: Golf Betting Preview & Breakdown

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-02-07 03:21:52

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down PGA golf betting tips for the 2024 Waste Management Phoenix Open. You can use the PrizePicks referral code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf props today!

After a weather-shortened Pebble Beach Pro-Am, the PGA TOUR moves to the biggest party on a golf course. The 2024 Waste Management Phoenix Open will be the appetizer on Sunday to the big game as some of golf’s elite will vie for a big win on TOUR. After two consecutive victories, Scottie Scheffler is in Phoenix to defend his crown. Will he be unseated by yet another golfer at high odds? Let’s open with betting odds before looking over TPC Scottsdale and pertinent Strokes Gained statistics.

Waste Management Phoenix Open Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – February 6th – you can find these odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of the Waste Management Phoenix Open:

• 2023 – Scottie Scheffler (-19)
• 2022 – Scottie Scheffler (-16)
• 2021 – Brooks Koepka (-19)
• 2020 – Webb Simpson (-17)
• 2019 – Rickie Fowler (-17)
• 2018 – Gary Woodland (-18)
• 2017 – Hideki Matsuyama (-17)
• 2016 – Hideki Matsuyama (-14)

The field for the Phoenix Open is pretty good in 2024. Rather, the field for 2024 was pretty good until No. 4 in the world, Viktor Hovland, and No. 5, Xander Schauffele, withdrew from the event. The field still boasts four of the top-15 OWGR players in the world and back-to-back winner Scottie Scheffler.

Hideki Matsuyama, a two-time winner of the event and Masters Champion, will tee it up. That said, the loss of plenty of talent to the LIV Tour and the fact that this year the Waste Management Phoenix Open is not a signature event means the field strength will go down. It does not help that the event is sandwiched between the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and the Genesis Invitational — an event that continues to draw esteem as both a signature event and a Tiger Woods-hosted invitational.

Wyndham Clark will tee it up this week after a 54-hole win at Pebble Beach off of a jaw-dropping 60 on Saturday. Sahith Theegala will play this weekend, hoping to improve on two excellent finishes at the event — including a third-place near victory in 2022. Justin Thomas could have the best course history in the field outside of Scottie Scheffler, with four T10 finishes over his last five starts.

Let’s break down TPC Scottsdale.

2024 WM Phoenix Open Betting Preview

• Course: TPC Scottsdale
• Date: February 8 – 11
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,261
• Greens: Bermuda

TPC Scottsdale has developed a reputation based on the atmosphere at a single hole. The par-3 16th hole is iconic as a packed stadium party cheers — or boos — the tee shots of everyone in the field. Over the years, hole-in-ones, most recently by Sam Ryder, lit the entire course on fire and fueled a reputation as one of the most fun environments on the PGA TOUR.

TPC Scottsdale will allow for plenty of scoring, with recent winners normally finishing -15 or better at the event. Guarded by sand, waste areas, and a sprinkle of water, the course will not pose a great test for the strength of this field. With weather hardly a concern in Phoenix, players will play a relatively flat layout and aim for greens.

The bulk of the scoring at the WM Phoenix Open occurs on the par 5s and drivable par 4 on No. 17. All three par 5s feature a birdie rate at or near 40%, with eagle rates near 2%. The 17th hole will compel players to pull the driver and look for an eagle opportunity. The hole features a 40% birdie rate with minimal risk despite the water short and left of the green. Dropping there still leaves players an opportunity to get up and down for par.

The plurality of the remaining par 4s are all between the 400-500 range. Thus, we must consider the 150-175 proximity range as a key statistic for the week when developing a model. We should also emphasize SG: OTT even if we overweight SG: Approach. In 2022, Scottie Scheffler won the event while losing strokes on approach. Players will be served by crushing the ball with the driver this week.

Further, the average driving distance at TPC Scottsdale is more than 12 yards greater than the average PGA TOUR event. Without question, players will need to have a decent week with the big stick to set up plenty of opportunities on approach.

Putting will be far easier for players this week as the greens are lightning-fast. Per Mayo Media Network, in 2021, 89% of putts from within 10 feet fell. With less break at an extremely fast pace, the importance of gaining strokes with the putter is mitigated.

With this information in mind, let’s highlight a few golfers to consider for betting cards, one-and-done, or DFS this week at the WM Phoenix Open.

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Golfers To Watch This Week

Unless mentioned otherwise, all Strokes Gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA TOUR.

Justin Thomas +1000

The narrative, recent form, and course history are all present with Justin Thomas at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Many believe that Thomas will course-correct into an excellent 2024 season, and so far, he has not disappointed.

Thomas comes in with back-to-back T10 finishes in decent fields. Even if last weekend was shortened, one could argue that Thomas could have improved on his sixth-place finish if given another round. With Vik and Xander withdrawing, Thomas will fetch the interest of bettors and OAD players looking to capitalize on his recent form and a better price than Scottie Scheffler.

While an outright bet might be a bit rich, a possible OAD selection or DFS play could be considered this week. Thomas continues to make his way back and is likely looking at plenty of momentum ahead of the majors season.

Hideki Matsuyama +4000

Poor recent form is likely the reason for a nice price on Hideki Matsuyama this week. Despite his issues with the driver and scoring on par 5s, Matsuyama has a couple of solid finishes thus far in the 2024 season. He certainly did not play well last weekend at Pebble Beach, but a familiar course could be the elixir Matsuyama needs to get his season jump-started.

Matsuyama has never missed a cut in this event. He has two victories and four T10 finishes. In 2022, Matsuyama finished 8th and should figure into conversations for outright betting and OAD in a slightly weaker field. At 40-1, he feels like a no-brainer as an outright option and top finisher bet off of those odds.

Corey Conners +5000

Another golfer in a bit of a funk to start this season is Corey Conners. Conners has not gotten hot with his ball-striking yet but brings a pedigree second-to-none with precision off of the tee and aimed at greens.

Whenever we can take a shot on Corey Conners at an event that diminishes the importance of putting, then we should. The lightning-fast greens could help Conners. He has been 50/50 with gaining strokes on the greens in his tenure at TPC Scottsdale — losing a bunch of strokes in two events. Conners doesn’t need to gain a pile of strokes on the greens. Instead, he needs to keep the putter in check so he can win with his ball-striking.

Conners should be able to let the driver loose this week and will be able to dial in the irons at gettable greens. His recent form is giving us a bit of a discount. We should take advantage before his odds shorten in worse fields.

Adam Svensson +13000

Finally, we close the article with a golfer who could rate out well given the aforementioned Strokes Gained categories over his recent sampling of events. Adam Svensson missed the cut last season in Phoenix but brings the scoring ability to pile up birdies at a flat, open layout.

Over his last 24 rounds, Svensson ranks 9th in SG: Approach and 4th in SG: Ballstriking. Even with poor finishes of late, those key attributes mean something for this event. I am willing to look past his performance last season with a 130-1 price tag. Let’s hope he doesn’t soak up too much DFS ownership and consider him for our betting card.

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