Russia using up weapons fast, might only be able to sustain war efforts 2-3 years: Report

(TND) — A new report gives Russia perhaps just two or three years of capacity to sustain its invasion of Ukraine at the pace it's using up military equipment.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies published an analysis, which it framed as “an imprecise science,” that estimated how long Russian forces could keep up their efforts despite “intense (armored) vehicle losses.”

The Russian invasion will mark its second anniversary late next week. And IISS estimates Russia has already lost close to 8,800 armored fighting vehicles.

Michael A. Allen, a political scientist and expert in international relations at Boise State University, said the timeline offered by IISS is “possibly good news.”

Russia is a massive country with a massive military-industrial complex, he said.

Ukraine has a “winnable conflict” on its hands if it only needs to hold out another few years, Allen said.

He said the estimation can change if the “shape of the war changes over time,” meaning if Russia shifts to an approach that preserves its weapons more.

And, of course, Ukraine is greatly dependent on assistance continuing to come through from Western allies.

The U.K. recently pledged $3 billion in military aid to Ukraine.

The European Union just approved a $54 billion aid package.

And the U.S. Senate this week passed a $95.3 billion national security package that includes $60 billion for Ukraine, but that package faces resistance from the House.

Allen called the EU aid a “stopgap” and the American aid “super critical.”

Russia doesn’t have much help from its allies, namely North Korea and Iran, but it’s also much better positioned to sustain war efforts internally than is Ukraine, Allen said.

The U.S. has already given over $45 billion in military support to Ukraine since the Russian invasion, according to a report published by the Council on Foreign Relations.

President Joe Biden has warned of the consequences for easing up on Ukrainian support.

“If (Russian President Vladimir) Putin takes Ukraine, he won't stop there,” Biden said in December. “It's important to see the long run here. He's going to keep going. He's made that pretty clear. If Putin attacks a NATO ally, if he keeps going and then he attacks a NATO ally, well, we've committed as a NATO member that we'd defend every inch of NATO territory. Then we'll have something that we don't seek and that we don't have today, American troops fighting Russian troops.”

IISS estimates that Russia has lost more than 3,000 armored fighting vehicles in the past year alone.

Some damaged Russian equipment has been fully knocked out of commission. Some have been restored to service. And some have been captured by Ukrainian forces.

Ukraine now operates a “meaningful number” of armored vehicles it has captured from Russian forces, IISS said.

Ukraine has about the same number of tanks it had before the war, with more armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles thanks to Western support, IISS said.

Russia is losing hundreds of armored vehicles and artillery pieces per month, IISS said.

But IISS said Russia has been able to keep its active inventory stable, dipping into storage and reactivating thousands of vehicles.

Allen noted reports that Russia suggested a ceasefire that would’ve allowed it to keep the territory it’s already gained.

That offer was reportedly rejected by the West, because it would’ve allowed Russia to regroup and be well-positioned to restart the war in five or 10 years.

Allen said that the reported ceasefire proposal, which Russia has denied making, perhaps reinforces the IISS analysis.

“That seems like a terrible deal for Ukraine and the West,” Allen said. “But if Russia's making that offer now, they also must be internally projecting that they can't get too much more out of this conflict, or if they will, it will be extremely costly to them.”