Philadelphia lost more than 50,000 residents during the pandemic, census data show

Philadelphia’s estimated population decreased for the third consecutive year in 2023, a possible ongoing result of the pandemic.

Newly released estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau indicate that Philadelphia lost more than 16,000 residents between July 2022 and July 2023, representing a 1% decline in population, which now stands at an estimated 1,550,542 residents. And since April 2020, Philadelphia’s population has declined 3.3% — or 53,251 residents.

Philadelphia has not declined in population for three years in a row since between 2004 and 2006, said Katie Martin, project director at Pew Charitable Trusts’ Philadelphia research and policy initiative. And the city has not posted a 3% decrease in population across three years since the 1970s.

“Historically, it is a considerable decline,” Martin said.

But experts cautioned against sounding the population alarm. The Census Bureau’s estimates aren’t a complete picture, and don’t necessarily reflect what will happen long term.

“The question is whether or not [population] continues to decline in the following years, or begins to slow or go back up,” Martin said. “We just don’t know at this point.”

The city did not respond to a request for comment.

A 12-month snapshot of county population, the Census Bureau’s estimates take into account births, deaths, and the flow of residents moving into or out of a given area in order to track changes in population.

But in 2023, overall, births outpaced deaths by about 4,500, putting the city in a net positive for what is referred to as “natural change.”

But since 2020, the city’s loss in population has been primarily driven by domestic migration, with more people moving out of Philadelphia than moving in, according to census estimates.

In the last 15 years, Martin said, Philadelphia’s growth has largely been attributable to international migration, or the number of people from around the world moving to the city. That has slowed since the pandemic, and more U.S.-born residents left.

Between July 2022 and July 2023, for example, the city saw about 7,000 new residents due to international migration. But more than 27,000 residents moved to other places in the United States, leading to a net migration loss of more than 20,000 residents.

In total, the city’s population dropped from about 1.6 million in 2020 to an estimated 1.5 million in 2023.

Chester and Montgomery Counties, however, saw 2.9% and 1.4% increases in population between 2020 and 2023, census estimates show. Bucks and Delaware Counties, meanwhile, remained relatively flat — as did the eight-county region around the city overall, with modest gains in suburban counties being offset by Philadelphia’s decline.

Among U.S. counties with one million residents or more, Philadelphia saw the eighth-largest population decline between 2020 and 2023.

Since 2020, many large metro areas have lost residents, with declines being attributed to the pandemic’s impact on how people live and work. And at least in 2023, Philadelphia’s decrease in population may have been largely impacted by the shift to remote work and telecommuting, said Kevin Gillen, senior research fellow at Drexel University’s Lindy Institute for Urban Innovation.

Initially thought to be a temporary change due to quarantine, the shift in working from home largely remained as pandemic restrictions faded. That change, Gillen said, combined with low interest rates during the pandemic, led many younger city dwellers to purchase homes in outlying suburbs, where they could work remotely or commute in periodically, when necessary.

“They’re getting older, getting married, and having kids, so they’re buying homes in the suburbs and living and working from there,” Gillen said. And many older city dwellers, he added, left their condos for lower-density, higher-greenspace options.

Other factors likely play a role, but none stand to have been as impactful as the work-from-home shift, said Lindy Institute managing director Ryan J. Debold. As a result of that change, former city residents could, for example, purchase a home in rural Pennsylvania and get more acreage for the cost, all while remaining employed at Philadelphia-based institutions.

In addition, many suburban areas, Gillen added, now offer similar amenities to those that initially attracted people to such cities as Philadelphia, such as walkable restaurants and shops. Amid the pandemic, some of those amenities closed in cities, he said.

“If you can’t walk to the restaurants and shops because they are vacant, what are you paying for?” Gillen said.

While the census estimates have shown a decline in Philadelphia’s population three years running, it should be noted that they are subject to adjustments in future years. And because they take into account only births, deaths, and migration data, many researchers take them with a grain of salt, said Brett Fusco, associate director of comprehensive planning at the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission.

“Even if the trend isn’t looking great, maybe it is looking less bad,” Fusco said, noting that 2023′s 16,000-resident decline is less than 2022′s 22,000-resident decline. “Hopefully, we are starting a rebound.”

Fusco added that the commission has not placed much stock in the 12-month census estimates in recent years, primarily due to discrepancies between estimates and the 2020 decennial census. The 2020 census, which is a count rather than an estimate, showed growth that was more than double what estimates had projected.

He added that the Philadelphia area has seen significant economic and employment growth in recent years. That combined with ongoing large construction in the city and region, as well as investments in livability — such as the Chinatown Stitch project, the I-95 cap at Penn’s Landing, and SEPTA’s recent $317 million federal grant for Market-Frankford Line upgrades — indicate that growth is likely, Fusco said.

“We’re a little hesitant to embrace it and say this is definitely what’s going on,” Fusco said of the population decline estimates. “There is a lot of evidence to show something else may be going on.”

But, unfortunately, we’ll have to wait another few years to know for sure. The next decennial census — what Fusco called the “gold standard” for a more complete picture of the region — doesn’t happen until 2030.

“As far as the need for immediate gratification, that doesn’t really help,” he said.